Inside Lending Newsletter From Kristen Zorda, Builder Index Rising
QUOTE OF THE WEEK… “How wonderful that we have met with a paradox. Now we have some hope of making progress.”–Niels Bohr, Danish physicist
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE… The dictionary defines “paradox” as a seemingly self-contradictory statement that when investigated may prove to be true. Last week’s housing news indeed presented a paradox. Housing Starts took a hefty 9.3% drop in June while the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported member confidence at a 6-month high! In fact, the NAHB builder index rose to a reading of 53, reflecting good sales conditions and a positive outlook going forward. The NAHB Chairman offered, “This is the first time that builder confidence has been above 50 since January and an important sign that it is strengthening, as pent-up demand brings more buyers into the marketplace.”
So what gives with Housing Starts? First, starts data can be very volatile month to month. You can even out this volatility and see the underlying trend by looking at the 12-month moving average. It just hit its highest level since October 2008! Then, consider that starts are up 7.5% from a year ago and the number of homes under construction (started, but not finished) were up 1.1% for the month and up 20.5% over a year ago. And although June Building Permits were down overall, single-family permits were up 2.6%. That might explain how builder confidence rose in the face of a monthly drop in starts. Having met with this paradox, we may now continue making progress.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… Check your attitude frequently. Are you acting out of guilt and obligation, or with passion and purpose. Stay inspired with what you do.
Orson B.Klender, Associate Broker
Keller Williams Realty Saratoga Springs
38 High Rock Ave, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866
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Cell: 1 (518) 588-2319 ~ Fax: 1(866) 588-6066